Think We Can Model the Climate? Clouds Get in the Way!

From Ron Barmby on CO2 Coalition.org (Apr. 9, 2023):

I’ve looked at climate change from both sides now, and I have found common ground between proponents and skeptics of the belief that climate change is largely caused by humans. When it comes to forecasting global temperatures, distinguished experts in both camps agree a dominant variable cannot be simulated in computer models because clouds get in the way.

Among the proponents is Dr. Bjorn Stevens, a contributing author to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 5 (2014). Dr. Stevens is also director at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, and a cloud expert. In a recent interview he acknowledged the contribution of clouds to global warming is overestimated in the IPCC’s “Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis.”

“Clouds are tricksters,” he said, referring to their complexity. However, he said, many scientists use oversimplified representations of clouds in modeling “as a guide because they are easier to simulate. This makes the climate models less accurate.”

On the skeptic side is Dr. Richard S. Lindzen, a former lead author for IPCC Assessment Report 3 and now a vocal critic of the IPCC. In a recent podcast the interviewer noted that Lindzen had published sufficient research papers to earn 80 PhDs. (Lindzen humbly declined the praise.)

Lindzen, professor emeritus of Atmospheric Sciences at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology,  points out that IPCC models rely on the assumption that water vapor and clouds amplify the greenhouse gas effects of CO₂ in order to achieve forecasts of catastrophic global warming. The IPCC theory is that a warmer atmosphere will have a higher content of water vapor – itself is a greenhouse gas – that adds to the warming caused by CO₂. Without this amplifying “positive feedback” effect, the models are still wrong for many reasons, but they no longer project “catastrophic” warming.

Dr. Stevens, who is on record stating that global warming is a “huge problem,” agrees that increased clouds do not amplify global warming: “Water-rich low clouds over the tropical ocean have the greatest cooling effect and low-water ice clouds at high altitudes have the strongest warming effect. Overall, the cooling effect is greater.” That’s called “negative feedback.”

Dr. Lindzen argues that global average temperature is controlled by the polar regions. The temperature at the tropics remains relatively constant over long periods of time while the polar regions have significant variations. In other words, a small change in global average temperature is the result of a big change in polar temperatures. The stability of tropical temperatures indicates that increased clouds provide negative feedback in times of global warming. Rather than exacerbating the global warming effect of CO₂, clouds reduce it.

Lindzen proposes the mechanism by which greater negative feedback is produced: High altitude cirrus clouds (Dr. Stevens’ low-water high altitude ice clouds that cause warming) control heat emissions to space. As the air below these clouds warms, the cirrus clouds dissipate and allow more energy to radiate into space. He calls this the Iris Effect.

Nature is dominated by negative feedbacks, not positive ones. French chemist Henry Louis Le Chatelier expresses this in Le Chatelier’s principle: A system in dynamic equilibrium (in this case the climate) is disturbed by changing the conditions (in this case the concentration of CO₂), then the equilibrium moves to counteract the change. Negative feedbacks occur because when a variable changes, other variables react in ways that offset the shift.

We can’t model clouds. The IPCC admits this. Nonetheless, its forecasting models rely on assumptions that clouds amplify CO₂ warming, without which its temperature forecasts are benign (that’s strike one).

IPCC forecasts based on cloud models have been called out by eminent cloud experts on both sides—proponents and skeptics of the notion of human-caused climate change. A recognized cloud expert and IPCC author (Dr. Stevens) states that clouds cause cooling overall, not warming (strike two).

And, finally, the observed stability of tropical temperatures argues that increased clouds provide even greater negative feedback to CO_2, and a cloud expert who has done enough research for 80 Ph.D.s (Dr. Lindzen) has an idea how that happens (strike three).

Clouds do not amplify global warming; they promote global cooling. That’s enough to convince this climate heretic that IPCC forecasts are no “red light” for humanity and to reject the insane drive to eliminate CO₂ from our economies.

IPCC forecasters overstate warming because they still somehow really don’t understand clouds at all. [source]

Darn those pesky clouds!

Scientists Discover Outer Space Isn't Pitch-Black After All

From NPR.org (Nov. 18, 2020):

Look up at the night sky and, if you're away from city lights, you'll see stars. The space between those bright points of light is, of course, filled with inky blackness.

Some astronomers have wondered about that all that dark space — about how dark it really is.

"Is space truly black?" says Tod Lauer, an astronomer with the National Science Foundation's National Optical-Infrared Astronomy Research Laboratory (NOIRLab) in Arizona. He says if you could look at the night sky without stars, galaxies and everything else known to give off visible light, "does the universe itself put out a glow?"

It's a tough question that astronomers have tried to answer for decades. Now, Lauer and other researchers with NASA's New Horizons space mission say they've finally been able to do it, using a spacecraft that's traveling far beyond the dwarf planet Pluto. The group has posted its work online, and it will soon appear in The Astrophysical Journal.

New Horizons was originally designed to explore Pluto, but after whizzing past the dwarf planet in 2015, the intrepid spacecraft just kept going. It's now more than 4 billion miles from home — nearly 50 times farther away from the sun than the Earth is.

That's important because it means the spacecraft is far from major sources of light contamination that make it impossible to detect any tiny light signal from the universe itself. Around Earth and the inner solar system, for example, space is filled with dust particles that get lit up by the sun, creating a diffuse glow over the entire sky. But that dust isn't a problem out where New Horizons is. Plus, out there, the sunlight is much weaker.

To try to detect the faint glow of the universe, researchers went through images taken by the spacecraft's simple telescope and camera and looked for ones that were incredibly boring.

"The images were all of what you just simply call blank sky. There's a sprinkling of faint stars, there's a sprinkling of faint galaxies, but it looks random," Lauer says. "What you want is a place that doesn't have many bright stars in the images or bright stars even outside the field that can scatter light back into the camera."

Then they processed these images to remove all known sources of visible light. Once they'd subtracted out the light from stars, plus scattered light from the Milky Way and any stray light that might be a result of camera quirks, they were left with light coming in from beyond our own galaxy.

They then went a step further still, subtracting out light that they could attribute to all the galaxies thought to be out there. And it turns out, once that was done, there was still plenty of unexplained light.

In fact, the amount of light coming from mysterious sources was about equal to all the light coming in from the known galaxies, says Marc Postman, an astronomer with the Space Telescope Science Institute in Baltimore. So maybe there are unrecognized galaxies out there, he says, "or some other source of light that we don't yet know what it is."

The new findings are sure to get astronomers talking.

"They're saying that there's as much light outside of galaxies as there is inside of galaxies, which is a pretty tough pill to swallow, frankly," notes Michael Zemcov, an astrophysicist at Rochester Institute of Technology, who was not part of the research team. [read more]

Feds have DNA evidence that could prove Ilhan Omar wed her brother, committed immigration fraud: sources

From NY Post.com (Oct. 19):

WASHINGTON — Federal prosecutors are planning to use DNA evidence to try to prove Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) committed immigration fraud, as part of the sprawling investigation into the congresswoman, sources told The Post.

People familiar with the years-long criminal probe said the feds have made use of whistleblowers, government records and now obtained DNA in an effort to substantiate decade-old allegations that Omar — and possibly members of her family like her father — defrauded immigration authorities.

One source said the DNA evidence was critical to proving an allegation that Omar married her brother when she wed Ahmed Nur Said Elmi in 2009 because she was trying to help him get a green card — which never came to fruition.

It’s unclear whether the DNA was taken before or after Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) searched the congresswoman’s home in Washington, DC, last Monday, when federal agents were seen exiting the bungalow with boxes marked “Seized Property Evidence.”

Another source pushed back on initial reports that investigators had gone “dumpster diving” in order to get DNA swabs of Omar, Elmi, who is currently residing in the UK, or family members.

Two more indicated that the execution of the search warrant on Oct. 12, coupled with the DNA and additional evidence, has provided a solid basis to bring charges of conspiracy to commit some form of immigration fraud before a grand jury, stemming from the probe initiated by the Minnesota US Attorney’s Office.

Given the case is being pursued as a general conspiracy, the evidence will prove useful even if some of the acts fall outside of the statute of limitations.

“If you argue a conspiracy, you can allege overt acts in furtherance of the conspiracy that are outside the statute of limitations,” said Neama Rahmini, a former federal prosecutor.

DC US Attorney Jeanine Pirro is also investigating issues related to the congresswoman’s finances — including entries in House disclosures that resulted in Omar deflating her net worth by tens of millions of dollars in the last year due to an unexplained accounting “discrepancy.”

“That judge would not have signed that warrant unless there was probable cause,” Pirro told Fox News. “If there was a crime committed, it will be prosecuted.”

The DNA evidence could finally prove an allegation that has percolated in Minnesota and DC political circles for more than a decade. Omar has repeatedly denied any accusations of the rumored sibling marriage since 2016, when she was first running for office as a state representative.

Elmi, who divorced from Omar in 2017, reportedly applied and then withdrew his application for a marriage-based green card in 2019, when US Citizenship and Immigration Services asked for additional evidence about his marriage to her, according to The Washington Post.

President Trump’s border czar Tom Homan said over the weekend that the feds have built “a strong case” that could result in the Trump administration seeking to denaturalize Omar, who has lived in the US since her family emigrated from war-torn Somalia in 1995.

Previously, sources said that the immigration fraud pertained to either Omar or her father, Nur Omar Mohamed, allegedly misrepresenting the future congresswoman’s birth date so that she could become a US citizen when her dad naturalized in 2000.

Legal experts have noted the statute of limitations is lengthier for providing false information on immigration paperwork than for fraudulently marrying someone. [read more]

Is it deportation time?  Or maybe prison time?

More Omar articles: 

• DOJ Court Filing Lists Rep. Omar Under Different Name
• Either Ilhan Omar Lied About Her Age In Her Autobiography, Or She’s Lying Now
  
• Report: Obama Admin Uncovered Evidence Against Omar's Marriage
  
• It’s Not Just Some ‘Rumor’ That Ilhan Omar Married Her Brother. Here’s The Evidence.
• Minnesota Rep: By 2016 Everyone Knew Ilhan Omar Married Her Brother
  

16 promises Trump kept before the midterms--and four he hasn't

From Glenn Beck.com (Oct. 20):

Here are the accomplishments that stand out.

1. He secured the border

Remember when we were told securing the border was impossible without Congress?

In December 2023, there were nearly 371,000 encounters at the border. This March, southwest border apprehensions were approximately 8,300 for the entire month.

2. He delivered on mass deportations

Trump promised the largest deportation operation in American history, and so far he is delivering. His administration has dramatically expanded removals over the past two years, although he hasn't reached the million-deportation target. But there are still two years to go.

3. He unleashed American energy

Remember the Green New Deal? The pressure to shut down coal plants, restrict drilling, and move away from natural gas? That’s dead and gone.

America is now producing roughly 13.8 million barrels of oil a day; Trump has put domestic energy production at the center of his economic strategy.

4. He's bringing manufacturing back

Trump promised to rebuild America's manufacturing base, and in response, companies from across America and the world have announced plans for new factories and investments, with roughly 309,000 manufacturing jobs projected from announcements this year.

5. No tax on tips became law

Trump signed legislation providing a federal income tax deduction for qualifying tips. He also delivered a deduction for qualifying overtime pay. After years of hearing politicians promise tax relief for working Americans, voters can point to an actual law.

6. Violent crime is falling

The murder rate is on pace to reach a historic low. According to the FBI, "the 2025 murder rate of 4.1 per 100,000 inhabitants is tied with 1955 and 1956 for the lowest murder rate," and that 2024 to 2025 shows the largest year—to—year decline in violent crime rates since the FBI began tracking in 1936. That’s fewer funerals, fewer grieving families, and fewer empty chairs at Thanksgiving. We all have a lot to be thankful for this year. [read more]

80% of promises kept is a pretty good record!  As for peace and secure elections, that will take the other participants to get their act together and be responsible.

‘GOD SAVED ME’ Mum found floating at sea after two years missing ‘felt shark fins’ passing by her before miracle rescue

From The-Sun.com (Sept. 29, 2020):

Angelica Gaitan, 46, was found unconscious and suffering from hypothermia off the coast of Colombia after being in the sea for eight hours.

She was discovered by fisherman Rolando Visbal and a pal floating 1.2 miles off the town of Puerto Colombia on the Atlantic side of the country at around 6am on Saturday.

It reported her first words after being rescued were “I was born again, God did not want me to die” after she had jumped into the sea following mental health problems.

She was brought ashore where locals tended to her before she was taken to hospital.

Angelica was then reunited with her family as she told investigators what had happened to her since disappearing two years ago.

The Carribean sea where she was in is home to dangerous sharks, including tiger sharks and bull sharks.

During her time in the sea she said the creatures circled her as she drifted in and out of consciousness.

“I knew there are many sharks in that area and, I don’t know if in a hallucination I felt that a fin passed very close to me, but it didn’t stop,” she said.

But then with time beginning to run out, she had a miraculous stroke of luck when she was spotted by the fisherman, who initially thought she was a log until she waved her hand to summon help.

Dramatic video shows the moment Rolando and a friend known only as Gustavo came across Angelica, who appears to be completely unresponsive.

Rolando told Colombia’s Caracol Radio that they nearly didn’t go out fishing that day after problems with his boat’s engine delayed an earlier trip.

“If we hadn’t had the problem with the spark plug on Friday, we would have gone fishing that day and the woman would be dead at sea,” he said.

“Gustavo warned me to be careful with the trunk and I began to turn about 15 degrees to the right, then to my surprise the trunk moved. I thought it was something supernatural.”

The video shows Angelica being dragged towards the boat in a lifebuoy the pair had thrown to her and which she had used her last ounce of energy to put on.

The pair attempt to have a conversation with her and give her water but Angelica begins to cry as the video comes to an end.

Rolando said Angelica didn’t say anything when they hauled her on to deck and was so weak he believed she would have drowned if she had spent any longer in the sea.

“So it turns out that I didn’t catch any fish that day either, but I fished a life. I think this was God’s purpose.”

Mystery continues to surround exactly what happened during the time her family lost contact with her, with her account of fleeing domestic abuse at the hands of her partner disputed by her daughter. [read more]

A miracle indeed. Glad she was rescued in time.

Happy Halloween!

 Made by me with a Gemini prompt (see below):

Photo-realistic painting in perspective. A night sky with stars in the sky. Upper-left is a small white waning crescent moon. Upper-right is a small fractal bolt of lightening.

The ground is covered with dead Bermuda grass.

A small vampire bat is flying close to the center in the sky. In the center of the painting is 2-story dilapidating abandoned pine wood house with 4 broken windows.

In the one of the windows is a transparent apparition of a small woman in white with black eyes. 

In another window is a small shadow person with a hat on his head.

In another window is a small bluish white sparkling ball of light.

Surrounding the house is a gated rusted iron fence. Next to the house on the left is an old bloodwood tree with a black widow spiderweb on one of the branches.

Next to the house on the right is a gray medium-sized granite tombstone with words RIP carved in the middle.

Out of the grave in front of the tombstone is a skeleton's small hand.

To the right of the house, is a zombie walking with its arms out. 

In front of the fence is the Grim Reaper. 

A transparent headless specter is walking toward the left in the background.

A medium sized blue lighted pumpkin with a worried carved expression in front of the house.

Notes from the American Citizenship and Its Decline course

Dr. [Victor Davis] Hanson argues that perhaps the greatest catalyst for the development of citizenship in ancient Greece was the protection of property.

Rome adopted many ideas from the Greeks regarding citizenship, especially from the constitutions of Sparta and Crete.

The Romans established a government with a senate and two consuls in order to check the excesses of radical Greek democracy.

According to Dr. Hanson, Rome was able to expand as far as it did because the Romans brought legal protections, cultural sophistication and material benefits to the peoples they conquered.

Rome's expansion brought new challenges to citizenship because its population was too diverse to share a common identity, the elites no longer felt invested in the common interest, citizens in distant provinces were difficult to assimilate.

According to Dr. Hanson, borders are significant to the idea of citizenship because borders define a space in which a common idea can be pursued.

Dr. Hanson does not classify globalization as one of the "organic" or "premodern" challenges to citizenship.

Source: Hillsdale College's "American Citizenship and Its Decline" course.