How The Undecided Dems Will Vote for ObamaCare

This is how the "undecided" Democrats I think will vote for the ObamaCare. I put the undecided word in quotations because I think they already have made up their mind but are too chicken to say how they will vote. The names in red are the Dems who voted NO for the House version of ObamaCare.

Vote for ObamaCare: 

1. Arcuri (NY).  His American Conservative Union (ACU) score for 2009 is 16 out of 100. A true Lefty.
2. Baird (WA). ACU score is 12. 
3. Barrow (GA).  ACU rating is 17. Life rating of 36.20.
4. Berry (AR) ACU rating is 22. 
5. Boyd (FL). ACU rating is 13. Life rating of 33.79.
6. Connolly (VA). ACU rating of 1. 
7. Dahlkemper (PA). ACU rating is 13.
8. Davis (TN). ACU rating is 29. Life rating of 49.17.
9. Ellsworth (IN). ACU rating 32.
10. Kanjorski (PA). ACU rating of 8.
11. Markey (CO). ACU rating of 8.
12. Matheson (UT). ACU rating of 24. Life rating of 40.67.
13. McMahon (NY). ACU rating of 16.
14. Nye (VA). ACU rating of 32.
15. Perriello (VA). ACU rating of 18.
16. Pomeroy (AL). ACU rating of 8.
17. Rahall (WV). ACU rating of 12.
18. Schrader (OR). ACU rating of 8.
19. Space (OH). ACU rating of 20.
20. Sutton (OH). ACU rating of 0.
21. Tanner (TN). ACU rating of 20. Life rating of 40.47.
22. Teague (NM). ACU rating of 29.
23. Titus (NV). ACU rating of 4.
24. Wilson (OH). ACU rating of 13.

A possible vote for ObamaCare:

• Childers (MS). ACU rating is 40. 
• Mitchell (AZ). ACU rating of 40. 

My logic for the predictions is simple. The more progressive or liberal you are the more you will tend to vote for the Senate version of ObamaCare. The two "possible votes" could switch to no. They are more moderate than the rest. Childers even voted no for the House version. The likely voters for ObamaCare who voted against the House version with life ratings close to 40 could swing there vote to no. Even some Dems who say they are voting for Senate version that voted against the House version could be persuaded by their constituents to vote no. It is interesting to note that their ratings of last year are a lot lower than their life ratings. ACU only shows scores for the last year and the year before so I am not sure why the major difference between the two.

According to the Code Red website where I got the "undecided" Dems, the Yes count is 19. The No count is 27. So, 19 declared yes + 24 predicted yes = 43.  I hope I am wrong about my predictions. I was hoping that there would be "undecided" Dems with ACU ratings of at least 50 or higher. I was disappointed but not surprised.

205 House members are voting no on the bill, or at least they are saying no. All the Republicans say they are going to vote no. 198 are voting yes. 28 are "undecided." Only 216 no votes can kill the bill. The "undecided" are they key here. So, it does not look too good by my calculations, but it only takes eleven "undecided" to switch to the no side to kill the bill.  And maybe some people who are voting yes to switch too. 

The ACU ratings by the way are from ACU's Congress ratings website.