When To Trust A Story That Uses Unnamed Sources

Commentary from Perry Bacon Jr. on Five Thirty Eight.com (July 18, 2017):

The various investigations into the Trump administration and its alleged ties to Russia are hard to follow. The allegations are sometimes muddled, the probes are still ongoing, and all sides in the dispute are leaking information that favors their points of view. These stories are also hard to follow because few officials are willing to put their names behind their claims and comments, leading to a stream of stories rife with unnamed sources. What’s a reader to do?

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1. Multiple sources add up. When an outlet says “six White House officials” or “seven Department of Justice officials,” it’s providing a level of precision that makes me more likely to trust the story. This does not necessarily mean that the story is correct. But it does suggest it was thoroughly reported. A recent New York Times story, for example, described something top White House adviser Jared Kushner was saying in private meetings, according to “six West Wing aides.” Six people are less likely to be wrong than one — and this also indicates that the reporter was cautious and diligent enough to seek confirmation with more than one person.

2. Unverifiable predictions are suspicious. Trust a source who says something happened; distrust a source who says something might happen.

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I’m more dubious of stories that claim insider knowledge about future events, for three reasons. First, they are almost impossible to disprove in any way.  …..A second concern, related to the first, is that the nebulous nature of these speculative stories creates an incentive for reporters to write them. …..Thirdly, sources have an incentive to encourage these kinds of speculative stories. If you are someone in the White House who does not like Priebus or you want to take his job, anonymously leaking that Trump is considering replacing Priebus is a great tactic.

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3. Specifics matter. What information does the story give you about its sources? The more, the better.

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4. Consider the outlet and the reporters. If, say, Nate Silver, Harry Enten and I co-write a story with unnamed sources about Hillary Clinton’s campaign decisions in 2016, there are reasons for readers to trust that story. All three of us have long records covering electoral politics. If the three of us wrote an article claiming that Kushner had a secret meeting with a Russian oligarch, full of unnamed sources, you should be more skeptical, since we are not regularly breaking news about Kushner’s activities.

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5. Watch for vague or imprecise “denials” of these kinds of stories. That often means they are accurate. Another thing to make you trust a story: When an official spokesperson offers a “denial” that really isn’t a denial. [read more]

Interesting, good advice.