4 Courses the Coronavirus Could Take

From The Daily Signal.com (April 10):

Since first emerging in China late last year, the novel coronavirus quickly has become a global crisis. The SARS-CoV-2 virus and COVID-19, the disease it causes, have spread rapidly across the world, infecting more than a million people and taking the lives of tens of thousands.

Along the way, the virus has slowed a majority of the world’s economies, including some of the largest.

So, which paths might this pathogen take?

At this point, it’s impossible to predict exactly how the coronavirus pandemic will evolve. After all, the virus gets a vote.

But based on historical patterns, comparisons to other outbreaks, and comments from experts, at least four paths seem possible and plausible.

1. One-Off Event

In this scenario, the initial outbreak of COVID-19 is tamed in coming months. The new coronavirus largely disappears and no longer poses a significant threat, to the point that developing a vaccine becomes merely a formality. Americans return to work and school. Life returns to normal. 

Although this is clearly the best-case scenario, it isn’t entirely without precedent. The SARS outbreak of 2002-2003 was largely a one-off event and lasted only six months. The virus has not posed a significant threat to public health since the initial outbreak.

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2. A Second Wave

Spring has sprung and summer is on its way. Americans want to get outside and shake off coronavirus-induced cabin fever. If social—that is, physical—distancing restrictions are eased, lifted, or ignored too soon, there could be an incalculable resurgence of the virus—and the unpleasantness that goes along with it.

Perhaps the best example of this scenario involves the 1918-1919 Spanish flu pandemic. According to a 2007 study, lifting public health restrictions too early in some U.S. cities caused a resurgence in cases, resulting in a second wave of infections and disease.

This possibility calls for caution in the months ahead.

3. It’s Seasonal

In this scenario, the United States overcomes the initial outbreak as warmer weather prevents the virus from spreading as effectively and efficiently. Unfortunately, despite the break in the rate of infection, the country sees a resurgence of cases in the fall as the virus settles into a seasonal pattern.

Many viruses follow a seasonal pattern. Seasonal influenza is a good example: Every year, a flu outbreak sweeps the United States from roughly November through March, infecting tens of millions of Americans—and taking many lives.

In the case of annual flu outbreaks, studies show the influenza virus survives longer at lower temperatures and lower humidity such as experienced in winter. The scientific jury is still out on seasonality for the new coronavirus.

4. Persistent Problem

In this scenario, the outbreak isn’t a unique event and isn’t strongly affected by changing weather patterns. Instead, the virus remains problematic for the foreseeable future.

Governments and scientists are left fighting new outbreaks throughout the country as they emerge year-round. Even with the development of therapeutics, a true resolution comes only when a vaccine is developed and mass produced. [read more]

Another related article:

Coronavirus and Public Health: 5 Glimpses of What the Near Future Looks Like