Commentary from Timothy Hsiao on The Federalist.com (April 8):
The social and economic uncertainty surrounding the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic has Americans understandably concerned about their personal safety. In March 2020, the FBI reported the highest monthly number of firearms background checks ever recorded: 3,740,688. Compared to March of the previous year, Americans bought 1.1 million more guns in a single month. Ammunition is also flying off the shelves, with sales in some states increasing more than 4,000 percent.Along the same lines:
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Desperate people do desperate things. Economic goods are human goods, and while the current lockdowns are necessary to contain the pandemic, they carry real human costs. Many of these costs — joblessness, homelessness, mental health issues, and drug abuse — lend themselves easily to criminal behavior.
Always Be Prepared
Am I saying society is on the brink of collapse? No, we are far from an apocalypse. The point is simply that the world is and has always been a risky place, so it makes perfect sense to be proactive and prepared. When things are peaceful and prosperous, we often don’t pay attention to danger because things are going so well. But in times of great social and economic stress, we are more attuned to things that might go wrong.
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The Odds of Violent Crime Are Higher than You Think
With that point in mind, let’s look at the odds of violent criminal victimization. In 2018, 3.3 million people ages 12 and older were victimized in 6 million violent crimes. There were 23.2 violent victimizations per 1,000 U.S. residents ages 12 and older, meaning 2.3 percent of Americans 12 and older were victims of violent crime in 2018. This is much greater than the baseline odds of injury from motor vehicle accidents, for which preparation is rational.
If you have a 1-in-50 baseline chance of being violently victimized each year, wouldn’t it be rational to take prudent measures to protect yourself? I think so. [read more]
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