The Four Stages of a 172 Year Cycle

From World Cycles Institute.com (April 17):

Stage One

The first stage after a crisis and financial collapse begins slowly. After a period of spiraling deflation, prices stabilize and then very gradually begin to rise to a plateau that continues for some time. Food and fuel tend to increase ahead of anything else. The initial rise in inflation is a result of population increases, which leads to a higher demand for goods and services. Living standards begin to rise. Couples marry earlier and have more children. Civil wars stop and social confidence and optimism return.

This leads to a “golden age” in every 172 cycle:

• 12th century — Renaissance
• 15th century — Italian Renaissance
• early 18th century — The Enlightenment
• late 19th century — Victorian era

Stage Two

Inflation continues, with prices beginning to accelerate above the previous plateau. Government wealth increases, sparking political hubris, which leads to empire-building and wars of expansion. Examples:

• 13th century — rivalry between emperors and popes (gov’t vs. the church)
• 15th century — state-building
• 18th century — dynastic and imperial struggles
• 20th century — world wars

Prices become volatile, rising and falling, a signal in underlying instability. This results in political disorder, social disruption, and a general mood of cultural anxiety

Stage Three

In the third stage, the general population comes to see inflation as the norm. People began to make choices that only exacerbates the situation and causes inflation to increase. Governments increase the money supply, only to add to inflation (like a snowball slowly rolling down a mountainside).

Stage Four

Prices continue higher and gradually became unstable with increased volatility. Commodities fluctuate wildly and prices begin to fall. The money supply is expanded and then reduced with financial markets becoming unstable. Governments increase spending and go heavily into debt. The strongest nation-states are the ones to eventually suffer the most due to fiscal constraints:

• 16th century —Spain
• 18th century — France
• 20th century — United States

Real wages begin to stagnate. The rich grow richer; the poor grow poorer. The middle class are hit hard and the standard of living drops. Crime and violence rise, as does the use of drugs and alcohol, and the family unit begins to fail. [read more]

According to the chart above earth is heading for another mini ice age. It started around 2007. Instead of decreasing CO₂ maybe we should increase it and think about ways of adapting to the coming ice age.