Wednesday, March 30, 2022

How a Potential Russia v. Ukraine War of 2022 Parallels the Germany v. Poland War of 1939

From American Thinker.com (Feb. 14):

Joe Biden is clearly not a student of recent history. Most specifically, he needs to revisit the lessons learned from the start of the Second World War in Europe.

If he doesn’t wake up and smell the coffee, he may be as guilty of starting the Third World War as was British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, the leading advocate of the “appeasement” of Germany’s militaristic supreme leader. The parallels between 1939 and 2022 are stunning, and if we fail to learn from recent history, we absolutely will be forced to re-live it.

On Sept. 1, 1939, Germany invaded Poland without provocation, merely because it coincided with Germany’s strategic effort to restore its pre-Versailles territorial boundaries.  With more bravado than military capability, three days later, France and Great Britain declared war on Germany, acting in defense of Poland.  However, having done so, France and Great Britain then did exactly … nothing.  They didn’t start a second front along the Franco-German border.  They didn’t even launch an aerial assault that could easily flown over borders.  They knew that Poland wasn’t strategic to their needs, and despite their moral angst, Poland wasn’t worth the loss of lives by the western Allies.

Despite their seeming invincibility, Germany was still re-arming after their rejection of the Versailles Treaty four years earlier. Their army wasn’t prepared to stand against either kind of attack from the Allies.  Essentially all of Germany’s vaunted Wehrmacht (the army) including its powerful Panzer force, and again, literally all of its rightly-feared Luftwaffe (air force), were involved in Poland, unable to defend the “West Wall.”  The Army that invaded France in 1940, or the Soviets in 1941, did not yet exist.

In 1939 – not largely recognized then, or now – France and Britain had a potentially dominant superiority over Germany’s armed forces.  France not only had the largest land army on earth in 1939, it also had the largest armored force, with tanks in many ways superior to Germany’s best.  Great Britain, while not fielding a larger army – though what they had was a tight army of long-service regulars – was perhaps the most professional army on earth in 1939. In addition, Britain had pioneered armored warfare, and had hundreds of tanks equal or superior to the best Germany had to offer.  Both western countries also had air forces that, when combined, were stronger than the Luftwaffe.  The best aircraft of those two allies were as good as the best the Luftwaffe could field.  Most obviously, the Supermarine Spitfire, the Hawker Hurricane and the French Dewoitine D.520 were all the equal to the vaunted Messerschmitt Bf-109.

………..

So what does all of this have to do with Joe Biden, Vladimir Putin, and Ukraine?  Unfortunately, a great deal.  First, the United States has no pressing strategic interest in Ukraine. Back in 2014, the Russian Federation seized Eastern Ukraine and the Crimea.  America under President Obama (and, presumably, Vice President Biden) denounced these moves, and even instituted a few sanctions which didn’t do much. However, the Obama/Biden administration never pretended that we had any strategic interests worth shedding American blood over. That was a savvy “Realpolitik” move – it may have felt unpalatable for those who support liberty and democracy, but it recognized that we were not the world’s policemen.  There were compelling strategic reasons to have strong – or at least stable – relations with nuclear-armed Russia. But there were few defensible reasons to militarily defend Ukraine from limited Russian aggression. [read more]

Hopefully, history doesn’t repeat itself—another world war.

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