Friday, September 15, 2023

Excerpts from "The Hundred-Year Marathon" book Part 5

China's Seven Fears are as follows:

America's war plan is to blockade China. The behavior of most strategic actors is influenced by their psychological peculiarities: factors such as emotions, culture, and fears. China seems to fear blockades of its long coastline, and the string of islands off most of its coast makes the leadership feel even more vulnerable.

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America supports plundering China's maritime resources. Chinese authors claim that valuable resources within China's maritime territorial boundaries are being plundered by foreign powers because of China's naval weakness, thereby threatening the country's future development.

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America may choke off China's sea lines of communication. Many Chinese writings touch on the vulnerability of China's sea lines of communication, especially the petroleum lifeline in the Strait of Malacca. Advocates of a blue-water navy cite the insecurity of China's energy imports. According to one Chinese observer, the U.S., Japanese, and Indian fleets together "constitute overwhelming pressure on China's oil supply," though another study concludes that "only the U.S. has the power and the nerve to blockade China's oil transport routes."

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America seeks China's territorial dismemberment. China has outlined campaign plans against various invasion scenarios in a training manual intended only for internal military consumption.

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America may assist rebels inside China. The three military regions along the northern border with Russia, including the Beijing military region, are said to be vulnerable to armored attacks and to airborne landings, as expressed in the 2005 study China's Theater Military Geography.

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America may foment riots, civil war, or terrorism inside China. Constant Chinese proclamations against foreign support for "splittists" in Taiwan, Tibet, and Xinjiang have become accepted as part of ordinary Chinese rhetoric, but these statements reflect a deep concern about China's territorial integrity.

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America threatens aircraft carrier strikes. For at least a decade, Chinese military authors have assessed the threats from U.S. aircraft carriers and analyzed how best to counteract them.

Source: The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower (2015) by Michael Pillsbury.

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