When Can Life Return to Normal? 4 Signs to Monitor

From The Daily Signal.com (April 1):

While a firm date for the end of this biological battle in the United States is just unknowable at this point, it’s reasonable to ask: How will we know when we’re seeing some light at the end of the social distancing tunnel?

Here are some of the things we would want to see:

1. Numbers: Any decision to loosen social distancing restrictions has to be based on data, not emotion. For instance, a locality, state or region must see its confirmed COVID-19 case numbers decrease over a two week period (to account for the disease incubation period) before considering mitigation modifications.

Similar dips in hospitalization and death rates, as well as improved recovery rates, would also be a welcome sign. In addition, experts must develop a comprehensive nationwide reporting system so that the data can be comprehensively collected, collated, analyzed, and shared.  

2. Testing: A robust diagnostic test architecture must be in place across the country. Optimally, testing should include not only testing for COVID-19—the disease derived from the SARS-CoV-2 virus— but also for the presence of possible immunity through serological antibody testing in people who may have self-resolved the illness.

Moreover, we need to have widely available testing with quick turnarounds, so that we have the data sooner to make the most efficient and effective public policy decisions in this dynamic situation. 

3. Health Care System: Our health care system is under significant stress and strain—not to mention the immeasurable pressure on our intrepid doctors, nurses and medical staff, who are on the front lines working tirelessly to protect and heal us. 

We have to get to a place where the health care system is no longer at risk of being overwhelmed, meaning it must have the necessary personal protective equipment to keep the medical staff healthy and enough ventilators for those in respiratory distress. 

Taking care of our health care system means rebuilding the Strategic National Stockpile, which can be immediately dispatched to a COVID-19 hot spot if local supplies are on the verge of being exhausted.

4. Medicine: There is not yet a vaccine for this new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, and no proven therapeutics or anti-virals.  However, the Food and Drug Administration has authorized the use of some treatments, such as hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine, under an emergency use authorization.

While an effective vaccine is likely at least a year away, proven therapeutics or anti-virals could arrive sooner, reducing pain and suffering. Effective treatments will likely reduce the hospitalization and death rates, too. [read more]