From The Federalist.com (Oct. 14):
It is absolutely true that national polls would predict a clear Biden victory if the country elected presidents through the popular vote. He’s up 10 points in the Real Clear Politics poll average nationally. What is left out of the media’s discussions of whether this or the 2016 race is winnable for Trump is the Electoral College. And for that discussion, it’s worth a look at the states whose electoral votes will decide the election.
In 2016, Trump won by winning battleground states that few expected him to win. Right now, he’s polling slightly and relatively better in those states than he did four years ago.
The graph above shows how Trump’s 2020 performance in polls of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina compares to his 2016 polling performance by dates out from the election. One hundred days out from election day, Biden was up nearly 6 points in battleground states, at a time Clinton was only up 2.3 points. Now he’s up 4.9 points at a time Clinton was up 5.1 points. [read more]
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