Computer says Iran will not build nukes

From The Inquirer.net (2/09):

A COMPUTER simulation says that Iran will not build nuclear weapons and president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will quickly disappear from power.

Political scientist Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, an advisor to the Central Intelligence Agency built a computer model which looks at political and social indicators in various countries. [read more]

I hope the computer program is correct. The CIA says the program is 90% accurate. I have a feeling that this is the 10% of time where it is wrong.

The article did not go into the program's parameters, but I did some research. According to a Wikipedia article the program uses two mathematical models: rational choice theory and game theory. Both theories simulate rational and/or logical people making choices. The leader of Iran is not rational. He is not insane, but far from being rational. He believes he can bring on the end of days by starting massive bloodshed. This will bring back the 12th Imann from a well. Sounds like a horror movie to me--I believe it was called The Ring. Anyway, he did launch two missiles after all. I wonder if the model predicted that. Fanatical religious belief is driving him not rationality.

I having nothing personally against Mr. Beuno de Mesquita's program or even against the theories he is using. But any social theory that does not take into account emotions, instincts, and beliefs is not going to be very accurate. People are complex beings. We are not simple automatons. Economics went under the assumption people were rational beings. In his book Your Money and Your Brain, Jason Zweig challenged those assumptions.